We’re set for a thrilling finale in the Japanese Triple Crown as LOVCEN makes his bid for glory at Kyoto Racecourse. There is no easy Triple Crown and while our field for the G1 Kikuka Sho (Japanese St. Leger) looks more and more like it’s coming down to two clear favorites, it is still a field of eighteen talented runners all looking for the wire first. The romantic in me wants to be entirely behind the championship bid, but the gambler in me is staring at double-digit odds up and down the board.

The gambler, to the dismay of my loved ones, wins out far too often.

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Most Likely Winner: #8 LOVCEN

That’s right, it’s not just hope with LOVCEN, he truly does come out on top in all of my prediction models. His speed figures are trending in the wrong direction, sure, but his ability to win tactically in different race shapes with different pace setups makes him a hard horse to pick against. Sometimes what we see on the track and what we get back in the numbers line up to tell us a horse is just flat out excellent. The only loss on LOVCEN’s resume came in the G3 Kyodo News Hai (Cup) to REALIZE SIRIUS who is in our Top 5 Tenno Sho (Autumn) Contenders and has proven himself since their last meeting. In that race, LOVCEN broke a bit harshly from the gate, seemed to struggle to find his groove and get settled in the early going, and yet he still dug back in losing by less than half of a length. And even then, that was a race at 1800m where the pace was quicker than it will be over 3000m and LOVCEN ran an impressive 33.4 G3F (final three furlongs).

With no significant changes in equipment and a solid recent workout effort, I have nothing in the numbers or form to say LOVCEN doesn’t have the best chance in the race. But betting on horse racing isn’t a game of picking winners, it’s a game of making bets that keep our pockets full when we head home from the track. In a field of eighteen with stakes-proven resumes up and down the form, it’s going to be a hard sell to put money down on the shortest price available.

…but the second-best price available?

Best Bet: #10 DANON HISTORY

While LOVCEN brings everything you want in a Triple Crown contender, I actually believe DANON HISTORY is the most well-suited runner for this distance. Whether he has the class to be enough on his best day to win a race of this caliber is the question he will have to answer. Let’s be realistic, this is a horse whose only meaningful stakes experience is a five-and-a-half length loss in the G2 Tokyo Sports Hai Nisai Stakes at 1800m. He came back from that loss a little lighter (-14kg) and stretched out four full furlongs to 2600m for back-to-back wins.

That’s where this horse starts to intrigue me more and more, and the odds seem to be trending in that direction as well. After just two starts, the Hori barn recognized this colt needed more ground. They benched him from November of 2025 until July of this year and then he came back looking like a horse worth every bit of the expectations. Getting Lemaire in the irons just makes this all the more captivating. His pedigree score isn’t the best in the field, but he’s out of a TIZWAY dam so there’s some serious distance in his bloodline. He has signed up for one hell of a final exam, but this colt has all the tools. Now he just needs to leave it on the turf.

DANON HISTORY should be a clear second-choice on the board as they load into the gate, but if he stays somewhere at or above 4/1 I think this is a good bet to Win.

However, let’s take a look at this Pace Map (which you can find in any race offered at GLD Racing) because I think there’s an interesting angle to consider.

Our pace map displays runners from left to right ordered by their expected running style. Early speed is furthest to the right, and your off-speed runners are furthest to the left. On the y-axis, we map horses by their projected GLD Rating for the race. In other words, the map tells us the expected shape of the race and gives us an idea of how good the runners are in each pace grouping. For example, we see here that our early speed runners are trending higher on the y-axis, meaning most of the quality in the race is likely to be close to the lead. As we get back to our closers, we see the quality dip with some of our lower-rated runners making up that section of the chart.

What happens when a group of solid early-pace runners are all competing for their preferred spot in the race? They tend to wear each other down. Horses work harder than they want to try to keep up with the early pace and it shows itself down the stretch. On the other hand, horses who are able to conserve energy while paces are fast up front may find a slowing pack prime for the passing. (I fit as many “P” words in that sentence as I could)

Where I’m going with this is we could see a race that just falls apart. In other words, if our most-likely winners are all going to tire each other out in the first phases of this marathon race, then someone may have a great chance at surging by late to spoil the party for both LOVCEN and DANON HISTORY.

But who?

Live Longshot: #17 CHARING CROSS

Let’s go way off the board for a minute. Sitting at least 100/1 or higher almost anywhere I’ve looked, CHARING CROSS is the best option on the board for our potential nightmare scenario. Do I think the most-likely outcome in this race is that DANON HISTORY and LOVCEN fall for a pace trap and lose ground down the stretch? No, I don’t think that’s the most likely outcome. But the question is not whether or not it’s the most likely outcome, it’s whether or not it’s an outcome you’d bet at 130/1. For me, that answer is a resounding “absolutely!”

Far crazier things have happened in horse racing. I like to remind new people I meet at the racetrack that these are still horses. They can’t always tell us when it’s just not their day. We can’t coach them with clear instructions the way we can a footballer. We have to try to look at what data and replays we have and give our best guess, hoping the horses follow suit. I think CHARING CROSS is the deep closing threat and our numbers project this colt to run a much higher number than his form would suggest.

That’s the beauty of the data we have at GLD Racing, we can dig across pedigree lines and project performances across different surfaces and distances. The idea of using the numbers is to gut-check for things you may not always be able to see in the form or on the screen. In a pari-mutuel game like horse racing, you make money when you go against the public. WIth a horse like CHARING CROSS, if I’m right then I’m right big. And if I’m wrong, I’m wrong small.

Betting Strategy ($50 Bankroll)

$10 Win - DANON HISTORY at 4/1 or higher
$10 Win - CHARING CROSS at 20/1 or higher
$5 Exacta Key Box - 17 w/ 8,10
$1 Trifecta - 10 w/ 8,17 w/ 6,8,9,11,17

As always, good luck!

GLD Racing is an independent analytical service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or operating on behalf of The Hong Kong Jockey Club, the Japan Racing Association (JRA), or the Korea Racing Authority (KRA).
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