As a Lexington, Kentucky local now, I can confirm the buzz is certainly in the air as the Breeders' Cup quickly approaches. Keeneland has been receiving its makeover for the big day and the leaves are finally falling across the sprawling horse farms of the Bluegrass. On the other side of the Pacific Ocean, champions have been in their final preparations ahead of the most prestigious weekend in horse racing, the Breeders’ Cup.

We’ve seen the more well-known contenders like T O ELVIS and FOREVER YOUNG preparing in the United States, and so we’re going to focus on what GLD Racing does best - quantifying races in Japan, Hong Kong and Korea. The GLD Speed Rating is the most predictive and accurate speed figure for Asian horse racing, and it will help us take the guesswork out of handicapping international shippers.

*If you play the races in Hong Kong, Japan or South Korea, please check out our Free Demo to see our official speed figures, race ratings, pace maps, GLD Line and more!*

1 | EMBROIDERY (116 GLD)

Division: Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf

Comparable Prep Contenders
SONG LINE (118 GLD - 2023 BC Mile, Placed 5th)
TEN HAPPY ROSE (117 GLD - 2024 BC Mile, Placed 4th)
LOVES ONLY YOU (113 GLD - 2021 BC F&M Turf, Winner)

Key Prep Race: G1 Victoria Mile (Tokyo) - Won
Race Analysis: This year’s running of the G1 Victoria Mile earned its grade and EMBROIDERY beat the six-year average GLD rating for the race by two points with a 119. Fifth-place finisher, COCONUT BROWN, and seventh-placed LAVANDA both went on to win G3 stakes races with others in the field waiting for higher-paying conditions. The race gave an honest pace while EMBROIDERY sat comfortably off-pace around the one-turn mile. She had a very easy trip, at least as far as trips in 18-horse fields go, but was well-deserving of her short price and showed it when it counted.

Race Replay:Watch on YouTube ↗

Final Assessment
EMBROIDERY sits at the top of our Japanese contender rankings for good reason. She has been succeeding at a mile recently, but has demonstrated the ability to win at multiple distances in various styles. From wiring the G2 Hanshin Himba to tactically pouncing in the G1 Victoria Mile, EMBROIDERY is a threat anytime she loads into the gate. The connections may be pointing her elsewhere this autumn, but if they feel like she can travel well and this Breeders' Cup division could be hers for the taking, I will have to believe their confidence is a positive sign. If the connections opt for Lexington, she could be the anchor of my multi-race tickets.

2 | LORD FONS (117 GLD)

Division: Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile

Comparable Prep Contenders
DON FRANKIE (114 GLD - 2024 Breeders’ Cup Sprint, Placed 9th)

Key Prep Race: Sakitama Hai (Urawa) - Won
Race Analysis: Urawa is a racetrack with a fascinatingly narrow dirt course and a short final stretch. LORD FONS made things look easy, recording a 125 GLD and putting away multiple-G1 winner WILSON TESORO. His victory came with a great setup as a speed duel broke out and opened things up for the stalking LORD FONS to just breeze on by. He was challenged down the stretch and dug in, finally opening his stride over the final furlong to cement his victory. Contenders from the field went on to win the G2 Centaur Stakes, After 5 Star Sho, and Hokkaido Sprint Cup among other stakes races.

Race Replay:Watch on YouTube ↗

Final Assessment
LORD FONS is a unique contender for the Dirt Mile with relatively no direct comparison for his final preparations. However, this runner has put up some massive figures against tough fields and that alone is well worth noting. How he takes to the dirt at Keeneland and how he handles the American dirt specialists will likely determine his fate, but I think the two-turn mile configuration in Lexington lines up well with the short run-up and final stretch of Urawa. I think LORD FONS could play spoiler to some big names at a price. He will be included in my multi-race tickets and anchoring my exotics as an underneath play.

3 | ASK IKIGOMI (91 GLD)

Division: Breeders’ Cup Mile

Comparable Prep Contenders
SONG LINE (118 GLD - 2023 BC Mile, Placed 5th)
TEN HAPPY ROSE (117 GLD - 2024 BC Mile, Placed 4th)
GEOGLYPH (114 GLD - 2024 BC Mile, Placed 5th)

Key Prep Race: G1 NHK Mile Cup (Tokyo) - Placed 2nd
Race Analysis: The field for the G1 NHK Mile Cup didn’t go on to be all that special, though placing in some prestigious stakes races along the way. ASK IKIGOMI took full advantage of the wide, sweeping one-turn layout at Tokyo firing home before being nosed out at the wire. It was an impressive run for just his third start, but it wasn’t quite enough. This doesn’t rate all too highly on my Breeders’ Cup prep race rankings.

Race Replay:Watch on YouTube ↗

Final Assessment
ASK IKIGOMI may be a star in the making, but I think this task is too tall for his fourth start. On the other hand, you could assume that confidence from the connections could be a signal of a young turf monster in waiting. For me, I think the field is shaping up to be too tough for a runner this green. If the hype around ASK IKIGOMI drives the price down, which I think it will, I’m grading this runner as a middle-price exotics add-on if you need a legit talent to fill out your tri’s and superfectas.

4 | DEEP MONSTER (113 GLD)

Division: Breeders’ Cup Turf

Comparable Prep Contenders
ROUSHAM PARK (112 GLD - 2024 BC Turf, Placed 2nd)
SHAHRYAR (111 GLD - 2024 BC Turf, Placed 3rd)

Key Prep Race: G2 Kyoto Daishoten (Kyoto) - Placed 4th

Race Analysis: The field, itself, had some quality and class with Tenno Sho winners and placers throughout. However, what we haven’t seen is any next-out races since the G2 Kyoto Daishoten was just a couple of weeks ago. Looking through the contenders, it feels more like the remainders of champions past than it does a grueling test for a runner ready to take another step forward. A prestigious race, yes, and a classy field, but not quite up to par.

Race Replay:Watch on YouTube ↗

Final Assessment
If DEEP MONSTER heads to the Breeders’ Cup Turf, I will likely be leaving him off of my tickets altogether. His prep run in Kyoto didn’t impress me much, the GLD figures came in right on par for a G2 in Japan, and an average runner up against international travel is going to be too much for me. I don’t believe he will offer much of anything in terms of a strong pace play scenario and doesn’t appear to be the best closer in the possible field. Barring anything looking like a different horse stepping off the plane, I won’t be chasing this one with my bankroll.

5 | SHIN EMPEROR (114 GLD)

Division: Breeders’ Cup Turf

Comparable Prep Contenders
ROUSHAM PARK (112 GLD - 2024 BC Turf, Placed 2nd)

Key Prep Race: G1 Takarazuka Kinen (Hanshin) - Placed 11th
Race Analysis: Finishing in eleventh place never looks flattering, but it doesn’t help that the rest of this field came off the soaked Hanshin turf course and came out utterly flat in all of their next starts. Heading into the race, the G1 Takarazuka Kinen appeared to be the strongest field of any of our preps. Coming out of it, the race has been downgraded quite a bit due to the next-out performances. I’m willing to forgive tough conditions and assume there’s more in the tank for SHIN EMPEROR, but the numbers certainly don’t point towards a sure thing.

Race Replay:Watch on YouTube ↗

Final Assessment
If, and it’s a big “if”, SHIN EMPEROR makes the trip to Keeneland and appears healthy enough to run, I will keep an eye on the price. Realistically speaking, this is an 0-for-last-7 runner coming off of a disappointing try in what was supposed to be a prestigious race. The rain threw things into disarray, but even looking past that you have to dig for the level of class he’ll need to find the wire first. With all of that said, the level of class at his peak is worthy of a few bucks if the price is right. I’m keeping an eye on a bounce-back but will need to see 15/1 or better on the board to wet my whistle.

6 | T O PASSWORD (101 GLD)

Division: Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile

Comparable Prep Contenders
FOREVER YOUNG (120 GLD - 2025 BC Classic, Winner)
USHBA TESORO (118 GLD - 2023 BC Classic, Placed 5th)

Key Prep Race: G3 Elm Stakes (Sapporo) - Placed 3rd
Race Analysis: This is the kind of race you want to see a horse like T O PASSWORD bury on his way to the Breeders’ Cup. He finished in a disappointing third place against this Group 3 field and I can’t imagine the connections are all too thrilled with his prep season. LUXOR CAFE took the trophy at Sapporo, a notable name from the 2025 Kentucky Derby trail and WALZER SCHALL, who placed fifth in the G3 Elm Stakes, did go on to score a G3 victory in the Sirius Stakes at Hanshin. Other than that there isn’t much to write home about. The field was properly rated for a G3 in Japan, but doesn’t appear to bring enough quality to translate to the winner’s circle at Keeneland.

Race Replay:Watch on YouTube ↗

Final Assessment
Oh, who didn’t at least try to talk themselves into T O PASSWORD in the Kentucky Derby? He may not be targeting the Run for the Roses or the Classic like compatriots FOREVER YOUNG and USHBA TESORO, but if T O PASSWORD ends up in Lexington in the Dirt Mile he’ll be a virtual toss for me. His recent races in Japan have been uninspiring and I just don’t think this horse has the quality to come back at this point in his career and win against the world’s best. Multiply that analysis by tenfold if his name appears in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.